Health Reform Update
September 28, 2009 by Kevin Phillips
I saw former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) and Senator Robert Bennett (R-UT) speak last week about healthcare reform from their respective sides of the aisle. In our last post, we said we'd let you know a little on the status of healthcare reform. Here are a few thoughts on what we heard...remember that "fluidity" word?
- It’s often asked by us normal, rational, reasonable types outside of the D.C. Beltway: If the majority agrees on about 80 percent of the legislative language for reform, why try to pass all the healthcare legislation at once? Why not break it into pieces? Here’s why – because the Democrat leadership is afraid that if the “easy” pieces get passed, the tough ones never will be.
First, we’ll consider Massachusetts as the model. That state passed broad coverage for its citizens, but didn’t address the other two main components of cost and quality. So, now the program is failing. By fixing only one of the three legs of the stool, the system crashed by creating problems for the other two.
Second, the history of healthcare reform. When we last debated major healthcare reform – HillaryCare – seriously in 1994, it was a debacle. So, the government pivoted and attempted to go about it incrementally. They passed SCHIP. They addressed insurance portability. They created Medicare Part D. Other things here and there. In spite of these baby steps, the cost and access to healthcare got worse. The Democrats in Congress believe if we continue the piecemeal approach that we risk being in the same place in 15 years as we are today.
Maybe, maybe not. In any case, healthcare reform remains deadlocked and at risk of not occurring because leadership appears unable to pass it in whole and unwilling to pass it in part.
- Ok, so what’s the prognosis at this point? Is it going to pass? The answer here remains the same: “Who knows?” There are four viable routes for reform.
First, continue to debate. Then, watch it die. There’s about a 50/50 chance of that right now.
Second, skinny the legislation down, pass the bill, have a Rose Garden ceremony and let Obama check the box that reform is done and move on. There’s about a 50/50 chance of that one, too.
Third, Obama, Pelosi and Reid ram it as is through Congress with either the 60 Senate votes needed or by taking a budget process track. It’s a real option with a 35 percent to 40 percent chance of occurring.
Fourth, everyone could stop and start over. This is the choice of most of the GOP members and maybe even some Blue Dogs. But, it’s the option with the slimmest opportunity – maybe 25 percent.
What still remains clear is that everyone wants something to happen. The “something” may be different, but there is desire for action, for that lingering buzzword to occur: change. That wasn’t true during HillaryCare. The snag is, the GOP and some conservative Democrats (enough of them, likely) won’t vote for any of the current options on the table.
Continue to stand by…
